Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$142.62
+12.24% vs spot
Buy
Spot price
$127.07
Mkt cap $57.71B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$115.31
-9.25% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
19 / 21
17 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
TGT · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
TGT · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $179.09 | $128.11 – $336.58 | +40.94% | 19.9% | WACC 4.9%, g₀=1.6%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $78.02 | $69.35 – $103.36 | -38.60% | 14.9% | kₑ 9.0%, g₀=1.6%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $65.41 | $57.20 – $76.36 | -48.53% | — | D₁ 4.47, kₑ 9.0%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $64.15 | $57.20 – $86.12 | -49.52% | — | D₀ 4.47, g₀=1.6%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $64.82 | $55.09 – $74.54 | -48.99% | 5.0% | 5y schedule 1.6% → 2.0%, kₑ 9.0% | high |
| Residual income | income | $46.50 | $40.92 – $52.08 | -63.41% | 10.0% | BV 35.19, ROE 22.9% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $195.35 | $171.90 – $218.79 | +53.73% | 7.0% | IC 31.0B, WACC 4.9% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $62.18 | $52.85 – $71.50 | -51.07% | 6.0% | Fair P/E 7.6 (payout 55%, kₑ 9.0%, g 1.6%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $178.86 | $157.40 – $200.32 | +40.76% | 11.9% | EPS 8.13 × peer P/E 22.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $101.87 | $86.59 – $117.15 | -19.84% | 5.0% | Fair P/B 2.90 · ROE 22.9%, kₑ 9.0% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $364.92 | $310.18 – $419.66 | +187.18% | 3.0% | Rev/sh 228.07 × peer P/S 1.60 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $222.11 | $195.46 – $248.77 | +74.80% | 10.0% | EBITDA × peer 14.0× − ND 14.8B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $154.90 | $131.67 – $178.14 | +21.90% | 2.0% | EBIT × peer 16.8× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $277.96 | $236.27 – $319.65 | +118.75% | 2.0% | Sales × peer 1.36× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $40.65 | $34.55 – $46.75 | -68.01% | 1.0% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 3.1% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $143.52 | $126.30 – $160.75 | +12.95% | 0.5% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $93.96 | $79.86 – $108.05 | -26.06% | 0.5% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $40.65 | $34.55 – $46.75 | -68.01% | 0.5% | PE = g (1.6) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $35.19 | $33.43 – $36.95 | -72.31% | 1.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -4.7% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.01)β | × 1.01 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 8.97% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 2.19% |
| Effective tax ratet | 22.3% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 1.70% |
| Equity weight$16.2B | 44.3% |
| Debt weight$20.3B | 55.7% |
| WACC | 4.93% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 3.89% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 3.13% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | -0.29% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -12.86% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 10.22% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 1.61% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2024-01-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Defensive (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $115.31
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.