Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$1,545.34
+371.41% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$327.81
Mkt cap $74.63B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$338.45
+3.25% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
15 / 17
12 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
HLT · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
HLT · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $5,141.64 | $1,434.42 – $5,835.40 | +1468.48% | 28.0% | WACC 2.8%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.3% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $261.90 | $201.10 – $349.30 | -20.11% | 21.0% | kₑ 9.2%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.3% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $9.56 | $8.35 – $11.17 | -97.09% | — | D₁ 0.65, kₑ 9.2%, gₗ 2.3% | low |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $20.16 | $16.39 – $25.20 | -93.85% | — | D₀ 0.65, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.3%, H 5y | low |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $15.51 | $13.19 – $17.84 | -95.27% | 7.0% | 5y schedule 25.0% → 2.3%, kₑ 9.2% | low |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $122.40 | $107.71 – $137.09 | -62.66% | 16.8% | EPS 6.12 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $97.94 | $83.25 – $112.63 | -70.12% | 4.2% | Rev/sh 54.41 × peer P/S 1.80 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $102.19 | $89.93 – $114.46 | -68.83% | 14.0% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 14.7B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $123.44 | $104.92 – $141.95 | -62.34% | 2.8% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $16.82 | $14.29 – $19.34 | -94.87% | 2.8% | Sales × peer 1.53× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $244.80 | $208.08 – $281.52 | -25.32% | 1.4% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 47.6% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $241.17 | $212.23 – $270.10 | -26.43% | 0.7% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $292.83 | $248.90 – $336.75 | -10.67% | 0.7% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $153.00 | $130.05 – $175.95 | -53.33% | 0.7% | PE = g (25.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | -$24.16 | -$22.95 – -$25.37 | -107.37% | — | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -20.0% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.07)β | × 1.07 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 9.21% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 3.96% |
| Effective tax ratet | 29.4% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 2.80% |
| Equity weight$-5.3B | -51.8% |
| Debt weight$15.7B | 151.8% |
| WACC | 2.80% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 8.38% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 47.56% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 20.09% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 43.09% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | — |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 25.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.30% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Cyclical (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $338.45
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.