Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$224.08
+40.87% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$159.07
Mkt cap $12.17B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$214.75
+35.00% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
17 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
AVY · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
AVY · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $423.98 | $255.01 – $802.43 | +166.54% | 22.3% | WACC 4.8%, g₀=9.5%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $173.92 | $131.94 – $236.15 | +9.33% | 16.8% | kₑ 8.2%, g₀=9.5%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $59.82 | $51.56 – $71.25 | -62.39% | — | D₁ 3.66, kₑ 8.2%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $81.92 | $63.02 – $108.04 | -48.50% | — | D₀ 3.66, g₀=9.5%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $70.91 | $60.27 – $81.55 | -55.42% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 9.5% → 2.0%, kₑ 8.2% | high |
| Residual income | income | $44.30 | $38.99 – $49.62 | -72.15% | 11.2% | BV 28.44, ROE 30.7% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $392.92 | $345.77 – $440.07 | +147.01% | 7.8% | IC 5.8B, WACC 4.8% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $175.60 | $154.53 – $196.67 | +10.39% | 13.4% | EPS 8.78 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $202.20 | $171.87 – $232.53 | +27.11% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 112.33 × peer P/S 1.80 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $170.13 | $149.71 – $190.54 | +6.95% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 3.5B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $173.67 | $147.62 – $199.72 | +9.18% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $127.09 | $108.03 – $146.15 | -20.10% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.53× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $127.01 | $107.96 – $146.07 | -20.15% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 14.5% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $171.60 | $151.00 – $192.19 | +7.87% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $238.83 | $203.01 – $274.66 | +50.14% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $83.73 | $71.17 – $96.29 | -47.36% | 0.6% | PE = g (9.5) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $28.44 | $27.02 – $29.86 | -82.12% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -9.0% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.85)β | × 0.85 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 8.24% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 3.63% |
| Effective tax ratet | 26.5% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 2.67% |
| Equity weight$2.2B | 37.5% |
| Debt weight$3.7B | 62.5% |
| WACC | 4.76% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 4.84% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 14.47% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 1.30% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -0.14% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 17.82% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 9.54% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2021-12-27)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Cyclical (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $214.75
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.