Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$62.56
+108.33% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$30.03
Mkt cap $40.86B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$32.33
+7.66% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
KDP · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
KDP · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $109.59 | $64.00 – $219.36 | +264.95% | 22.3% | WACC 5.3%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.7% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $51.50 | $35.12 – $82.11 | +71.50% | 16.8% | kₑ 6.3%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.7% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $27.18 | $21.25 – $37.69 | -9.50% | — | D₁ 0.95, kₑ 6.3%, gₗ 2.7% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $56.63 | $41.18 – $84.04 | +88.58% | — | D₀ 0.95, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.7%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $44.24 | $37.60 – $50.87 | +47.31% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 25.0% → 2.7%, kₑ 6.3% | high |
| Residual income | income | $20.17 | $17.75 – $22.59 | -32.83% | 11.2% | BV 19.36, ROE 8.1% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $169.23 | $148.92 – $189.54 | +463.54% | 7.8% | IC 40.6B, WACC 5.3% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $33.66 | $29.62 – $37.70 | +12.09% | 13.4% | EPS 1.53 × peer P/E 22.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $20.16 | $17.13 – $23.18 | -32.88% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 12.60 × peer P/S 1.60 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $33.08 | $29.11 – $37.05 | +10.16% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 14.0× − ND 15.1B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $35.03 | $29.78 – $40.29 | +16.66% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 16.8× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $5.66 | $4.81 – $6.51 | -81.14% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.36× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $61.20 | $52.02 – $70.38 | +103.80% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 48.8% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $28.97 | $25.50 – $32.45 | -3.51% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $73.21 | $62.23 – $84.19 | +143.78% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $38.25 | $32.51 – $43.99 | +27.37% | 0.6% | PE = g (25.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $19.36 | $18.39 – $20.33 | -35.53% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $6.97 | $5.92 – $8.02 | -76.79% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 0.8% · Conservative — modest implied growth | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.42)β | × 0.42 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 6.32% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.67% |
| Effective tax ratet | 23.2% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.59% |
| Equity weight$25.5B | 61.3% |
| Debt weight$16.1B | 38.7% |
| WACC | 5.26% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 58.21% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 48.77% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 6.96% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 0.50% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 3.25% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 25.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.73% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2021-12-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Defensive (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $32.33
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.