Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$459.30
+115.56% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$213.07
Mkt cap $9.84B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
—
vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
19 / 20
9 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
ERIE · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
ERIE · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $1,321.11 | $692.19 – $4,528.68 | +520.04% | 6.0% | WACC 5.9%, g₀=13.9%, gₗ=4.4% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $1,313.69 | $684.76 – $4,521.26 | +516.55% | 11.9% | kₑ 5.9%, g₀=13.9%, gₗ=4.4% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $381.60 | $228.52 – $1,139.30 | +79.10% | 11.9% | D₁ 5.46, kₑ 5.9%, gₗ 4.4% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $555.59 | $299.88 – $1,822.45 | +160.75% | — | D₀ 5.46, g₀=13.9%, gₗ=4.4%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $474.35 | $403.20 – $545.51 | +122.63% | 11.9% | 5y schedule 13.9% → 4.4%, kₑ 5.9% | high |
| Residual income | income | $71.82 | $63.20 – $80.44 | -66.29% | 21.4% | BV 49.00, ROE 24.5% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $1,037.78 | $913.24 – $1,162.31 | +387.06% | 7.1% | IC 1.9B, WACC 5.9% | high |
| Excess returns | income | $110.47 | $97.21 – $123.72 | -48.16% | 14.3% | BV 49.00, ROE 24.5% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $148.68 | $130.84 – $166.52 | -30.22% | 9.5% | EPS 10.62 × peer P/E 14.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $261.85 | $222.57 – $301.12 | +22.89% | — | Rev/sh 87.28 × peer P/S 3.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $176.39 | $155.23 – $197.56 | -17.21% | — | EBITDA × peer 10.0× − ND -0.3B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $192.71 | $163.80 – $221.62 | -9.55% | — | EBIT × peer 12.0× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $229.99 | $195.49 – $264.49 | +7.94% | — | Sales × peer 2.55× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $204.00 | $173.40 – $234.60 | -4.26% | — | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 19.2% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $213.79 | $188.14 – $239.45 | +0.34% | — | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $380.61 | $323.52 – $437.71 | +78.63% | — | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $147.77 | $125.60 – $169.93 | -30.65% | — | PE = g (13.9) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $49.00 | $46.55 – $51.45 | -77.00% | 6.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $29.63 | $25.18 – $34.07 | -86.10% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -20.0% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.32)β | × 0.32 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 5.89% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 5.96% |
| Effective tax ratet | 21.3% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 4.69% |
| Equity weight$2.3B | 100.0% |
| Debt weight$0.0B | 0.0% |
| WACC | 5.89% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 2.73% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 19.21% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 11.47% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 16.88% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 13.36% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 13.91% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 4.39% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2020-12-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Financial Services (live sector PE unavailable)
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.