ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.$89.34
+1.46%Live · FMPMay 29, 2026
Market cap
$31.21B
52w range
82.45 – 103.39
P / E
—
EPS
—
Volume
5.15M
Revenue · FY
$19.93B
+14.27% YoY
Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$426.63
+377.53% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$89.34
Mkt cap $31.21B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$104.00
+16.41% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
20 / 21
11 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
ACGL · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
ACGL · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $2,348.11 | $1,145.25 – $2,719.94 | +2528.29% | 5.0% | WACC 5.8%, g₀=-2.6%, gₗ=5.3% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $1,847.54 | $1,039.71 – $2,667.48 | +1967.99% | 10.0% | kₑ 5.9%, g₀=-2.6%, gₗ=5.3% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $3.16 | $1.21 – $3.94 | -96.47% | 10.0% | D₁ 0.02, kₑ 5.9%, gₗ 5.3% | low |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $1.96 | $1.21 – $3.01 | -97.80% | — | D₀ 0.02, g₀=-2.6%, gₗ=5.3%, H 5y | low |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $2.60 | $2.21 – $2.99 | -97.09% | 10.0% | 5y schedule -2.6% → 5.3%, kₑ 5.9% | low |
| Residual income | income | $85.35 | $75.11 – $95.60 | -4.46% | 18.0% | BV 64.70, ROE 18.2% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $826.00 | $726.88 – $925.12 | +824.55% | 6.0% | IC 25.9B, WACC 5.8% | high |
| Excess returns | income | $225.01 | $198.01 – $252.01 | +151.86% | 12.0% | BV 64.70, ROE 18.2% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $0.21 | $0.18 – $0.24 | -99.77% | 6.0% | Fair P/E 0.0 (payout 0%, kₑ 5.9%, g -2.6%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $162.68 | $143.16 – $182.20 | +82.09% | 8.0% | EPS 11.62 × peer P/E 14.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $157.04 | $133.49 – $180.60 | +75.78% | 10.0% | Fair P/B 2.43 · ROE 18.2%, kₑ 5.9% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $159.80 | $135.83 – $183.77 | +78.87% | — | Rev/sh 53.27 × peer P/S 3.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $138.41 | $121.80 – $155.02 | +54.92% | — | EBITDA × peer 10.0× − ND 1.7B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $155.05 | $131.80 – $178.31 | +73.56% | — | EBIT × peer 12.0× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $131.19 | $111.51 – $150.87 | +46.84% | — | Sales × peer 2.55× − ND | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $194.20 | $170.90 – $217.51 | +117.37% | — | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $97.44 | $82.83 – $112.06 | +9.07% | — | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $58.10 | $49.38 – $66.81 | -34.97% | — | PE = g (-2.6) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $64.70 | $61.46 – $67.93 | -27.58% | 5.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $11.73 | $9.97 – $13.48 | -86.88% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -20.0% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.33)β | × 0.33 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 5.93% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 5.42% |
| Effective tax ratet | 13.2% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 4.71% |
| Equity weight$24.2B | 89.9% |
| Debt weight$2.7B | 10.1% |
| WACC | 5.81% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | -14.34% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | -20.09% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 22.25% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 22.09% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 18.14% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | -2.64% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 5.31% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2021-12-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Financial Services (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $104.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.