Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$501.83
+101.72% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$248.77
Mkt cap $72.63B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$214.78
-13.66% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
17 / 19
9 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
MPC · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
MPC · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $1,476.72 | $911.92 – $2,711.92 | +493.61% | 20.0% | WACC 4.8%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $673.86 | $487.87 – $975.21 | +170.88% | 11.1% | kₑ 6.8%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $82.72 | $68.52 – $104.36 | -66.75% | — | D₁ 3.91, kₑ 6.8%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $175.99 | $135.70 – $237.36 | -29.26% | — | D₀ 3.91, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $136.40 | $115.94 – $156.86 | -45.17% | — | 5y schedule 25.0% → 2.0%, kₑ 6.8% | high |
| Residual income | income | $102.76 | $90.43 – $115.09 | -58.69% | 5.6% | BV 82.66, ROE 16.8% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $1,252.20 | $1,101.93 – $1,402.46 | +403.36% | 3.3% | IC 54.8B, WACC 4.8% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $159.24 | $140.13 – $178.35 | -35.99% | 11.1% | EPS 13.27 × peer P/E 12.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $546.47 | $464.50 – $628.44 | +119.67% | — | Rev/sh 455.39 × peer P/S 1.20 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $135.15 | $118.93 – $151.37 | -45.67% | 22.2% | EBITDA × peer 6.0× − ND 30.7B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $37.21 | $31.63 – $42.79 | -85.04% | 8.9% | EBIT × peer 7.2× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $359.19 | $305.31 – $413.07 | +44.39% | 6.7% | Sales × peer 1.02× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $530.80 | $451.18 – $610.42 | +113.37% | — | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 119.1% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $237.62 | $209.11 – $266.13 | -4.48% | — | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $634.94 | $539.70 – $730.18 | +155.23% | — | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $331.75 | $281.99 – $381.51 | +33.36% | — | PE = g (25.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $82.66 | $78.52 – $86.79 | -66.77% | 11.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -8.8% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.53)β | × 0.53 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 6.82% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.11% |
| Effective tax ratet | 16.2% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.44% |
| Equity weight$24.1B | 41.2% |
| Debt weight$34.4B | 58.8% |
| WACC | 4.84% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 20.09% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 119.11% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 2.55% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 49.04% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 12.07% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 25.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Energy (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $214.78
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.