Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$23.31
-48.50% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$45.26
Mkt cap $84.1B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$43.08
-4.82% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
CSX · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
CSX · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $27.11 | $15.96 – $46.69 | -40.11% | 22.3% | WACC 6.0%, g₀=12.7%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $11.27 | $8.84 – $14.63 | -75.11% | 16.8% | kₑ 10.0%, g₀=12.7%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $6.71 | $5.96 – $7.67 | -85.17% | — | D₁ 0.53, kₑ 10.0%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $10.24 | $8.23 – $12.84 | -77.37% | — | D₀ 0.53, g₀=12.7%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $8.50 | $7.22 – $9.77 | -81.22% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 12.7% → 2.0%, kₑ 10.0% | high |
| Residual income | income | $9.11 | $8.01 – $10.20 | -79.88% | 11.2% | BV 7.11, ROE 22.0% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $51.88 | $45.65 – $58.10 | +14.62% | 7.8% | IC 31.8B, WACC 6.0% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $30.80 | $27.10 – $34.50 | -31.95% | 13.4% | EPS 1.54 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $15.23 | $12.94 – $17.51 | -66.36% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 7.61 × peer P/S 2.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $31.10 | $27.37 – $34.83 | -31.28% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 18.7B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $28.01 | $23.81 – $32.21 | -38.12% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $2.85 | $2.42 – $3.28 | -93.70% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.70× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $36.93 | $31.39 – $42.47 | -18.40% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 24.0% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $20.98 | $18.46 – $23.50 | -53.65% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $51.62 | $43.88 – $59.36 | +14.05% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $19.62 | $16.67 – $22.56 | -56.66% | 0.6% | PE = g (12.7) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $7.11 | $6.75 – $7.46 | -84.29% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $0.14 | $0.12 – $0.16 | -99.69% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 22.5% · Aggressive — well above sector trend | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.24)β | × 1.24 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 9.98% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.36% |
| Effective tax ratet | 23.3% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.35% |
| Equity weight$13.2B | 40.5% |
| Debt weight$19.4B | 59.5% |
| WACC | 6.03% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 4.92% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 23.98% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 3.00% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -2.15% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 14.57% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 12.74% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Industrials (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $43.08
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.