Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$103.53
+8.27% vs spot
Hold
Spot price
$95.63
Mkt cap $22.66B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$99.60
+4.15% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
CHD · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
CHD · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $196.77 | $130.71 – $323.30 | +105.76% | 22.3% | WACC 5.4%, g₀=11.3%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $141.11 | $101.56 – $206.48 | +47.56% | 16.8% | kₑ 6.6%, g₀=11.3%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $26.72 | $21.96 – $34.12 | -72.06% | — | D₁ 1.21, kₑ 6.6%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $38.86 | $28.71 – $54.65 | -59.36% | — | D₀ 1.21, g₀=11.3%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $32.99 | $28.04 – $37.94 | -65.50% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 11.3% → 2.0%, kₑ 6.6% | high |
| Residual income | income | $21.65 | $19.05 – $24.25 | -77.36% | 11.2% | BV 16.83, ROE 18.4% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $120.95 | $106.44 – $135.47 | +26.48% | 7.8% | IC 5.8B, WACC 5.4% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $66.44 | $58.47 – $74.41 | -30.52% | 13.4% | EPS 3.02 × peer P/E 22.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $41.73 | $35.47 – $47.99 | -56.36% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 26.08 × peer P/S 1.60 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $68.94 | $60.67 – $77.21 | -27.91% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 14.0× − ND 1.8B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $68.57 | $58.28 – $78.85 | -28.30% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 16.8× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $27.92 | $23.73 – $32.11 | -70.81% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.36× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $72.80 | $61.88 – $83.72 | -23.87% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 24.1% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $56.79 | $49.97 – $63.60 | -40.62% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $92.49 | $78.62 – $106.36 | -3.28% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $34.04 | $28.93 – $39.15 | -64.40% | 0.6% | PE = g (11.3) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $16.83 | $15.99 – $17.67 | -82.40% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $6.10 | $5.19 – $7.02 | -93.62% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -4.1% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.48)β | × 0.48 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 6.61% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.32% |
| Effective tax ratet | 22.6% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.34% |
| Equity weight$4.0B | 64.5% |
| Debt weight$2.2B | 35.5% |
| WACC | 5.45% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | -0.80% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 24.11% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 4.56% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -2.34% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 11.23% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 11.27% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Defensive (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $99.60
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.