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Arphra AIPlain-English read on Affirm Holdings, Inc.’s valuationIncome statement
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue & profit | |||||||||
| Revenue | $870.46M | $1.35B | $1.59B | $2.32B | $3.22B | $4.2B | $5.26B | $6.56B | $8.15B |
| Cost of revenue | $322.91M | $576.46M | $873.16M | $845.11M | $1.05B | $1.68B | $2.12B | $2.76B | $3.32B |
| Gross profit | $547.55M | $772.84M | $714.82M | $1.48B | $2.18B | $2.49B | $3.09B | $3.9B | $4.78B |
| Gross margin | +62.90% | +57.28% | +45.01% | +63.62% | +67.51% | +59.27% | +58.71% | +59.39% | +58.64% |
| Operating | |||||||||
| Research & development | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Selling, general & administrative | $565.94M | $1.11B | $1.22B | $1.1B | $979.9M | $2.11B | $2.73B | $3.43B | $4.12B |
| Total operating expenses | $931.22M | $1.64B | $1.92B | $2.09B | $2.26B | $3.85B | $4.88B | $6.11B | $7.48B |
| Operating income | -$383.67M | -$866.05M | -$1.2B | -$615.85M | -$87.27M | -$1.44B | -$1.82B | -$2.36B | -$2.85B |
| Operating margin | -44.08% | -64.19% | -75.62% | -26.51% | -2.71% | -34.32% | -34.65% | -35.92% | -34.93% |
| EBITDA | -$370.69M | -$602.42M | -$671.6M | -$2.23M | $711.99M | -$276.31M | -$363.78M | -$431.52M | -$554.39M |
| EBIT | -$390.67M | -$655.14M | -$806.23M | -$171.27M | $486.92M | -$594.67M | -$758.38M | -$938.82M | -$1.2B |
| Below the line | |||||||||
| Interest expense | $52.7M | $69.69M | $183.01M | $344.25M | $425.45M | $537.68M | $678.81M | $854.51M | $1.11B |
| Interest income | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Other income / expense | -$59.7M | $141.22M | $211.62M | $100.32M | $148.74M | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | -$443.37M | -$724.83M | -$989.25M | -$515.53M | $61.46M | -$1.13B | -$1.42B | -$1.84B | -$2.24B |
| Income tax expense | -$2.34M | -$17.41M | -$3.9M | $2.23M | $9.28M | -$174.02M | -$221.59M | -$274.71M | -$341.7M |
| Earnings | |||||||||
| Net income | -$441.03M | -$707.42M | -$985.35M | -$517.76M | $52.19M | -$1.17B | -$1.41B | -$1.8B | -$2.26B |
| Net income · continuing ops | -$441.03M | -$707.42M | -$985.35M | -$517.76M | $52.19M | -$1.16B | -$1.43B | -$1.81B | -$2.21B |
| Net margin | -50.67% | -52.43% | -62.05% | -22.29% | +1.62% | -27.82% | -26.80% | -27.37% | -27.69% |
| EPS · basic | $-1.64 | $-2.51 | $-3.34 | $-1.67 | $0.16 | $1.30 | $1.82 | $2.59 | $4.03 |
| EPS · diluted | $-1.64 | $-2.51 | $-3.34 | $-1.67 | $0.15 | $1.25 | $1.77 | $2.52 | $3.89 |
| EPS · low estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $1.14 | $1.31 | $1.81 | $3.73 |
| EPS · high estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $1.40 | $2.32 | $3.47 | $4.18 |
| Shares · basic | 269.48M | 281.7M | 295.34M | 309.86M | 322.85M | 321.63M | 325.05M | 320.11M | 324.83M |
| Shares · diluted | 269.48M | 281.7M | 295.34M | 309.86M | 341.02M | 342.01M | 340.31M | 341.16M | 340.83M |
| Coverage | |||||||||
| Analysts (revenue) | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 23 | 21 | 10 |
| Analysts (EPS) | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 15 | 20 | 9 |
Coverage notes. Historical figures come’s as-reported income statements / balance sheets / cash flows in our data warehouse. Forecast columns (italicised, faint accent tint) carry vendor-supplied numbers where available (revenue + EPS consensus) and ratio-derived values for every other line. Margins / ratios are the trailing-3y average from history applied to the forecast revenue; values are clamped to enforce P&L identity (gross ≥ operating, EBITDA ≥ operating, net ≤ operating) and balance-sheet identity (assets = liabilities + equity by construction). Cash-flow FCF reconciles to OCF + CapEx. USD conversion uses the period-end close of the issuer's reported/USD pair from forex_prices_daily; share counts stay unconverted.
Financials
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