Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$237.07
+287.56% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$61.17
Mkt cap $78.52B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$67.00
+9.53% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
MDLZ · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
MDLZ · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $678.24 | $281.23 – $1,534.40 | +1008.78% | 22.3% | WACC 3.8%, g₀=24.5%, gₗ=2.8% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $175.63 | $118.67 – $284.68 | +187.11% | 16.8% | kₑ 6.3%, g₀=24.5%, gₗ=2.8% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $57.70 | $44.71 – $81.33 | -5.68% | — | D₁ 1.93, kₑ 6.3%, gₗ 2.8% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $118.53 | $85.32 – $178.94 | +93.77% | — | D₀ 1.93, g₀=24.5%, gₗ=2.8%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $92.81 | $78.89 – $106.74 | +51.73% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 24.5% → 2.8%, kₑ 6.3% | high |
| Residual income | income | $21.53 | $18.95 – $24.12 | -64.80% | 11.2% | BV 20.10, ROE 9.5% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $435.91 | $383.60 – $488.22 | +612.62% | 7.8% | IC 46.2B, WACC 3.8% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $41.58 | $36.59 – $46.57 | -32.03% | 13.4% | EPS 1.89 × peer P/E 22.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $47.88 | $40.70 – $55.06 | -21.73% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 29.92 × peer P/S 1.60 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $34.85 | $30.67 – $39.03 | -43.03% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 14.0× − ND 20.3B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $31.48 | $26.76 – $36.20 | -48.54% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 16.8× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $24.95 | $21.21 – $28.69 | -59.21% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.36× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $75.60 | $64.26 – $86.94 | +23.59% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 61.6% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $39.99 | $35.19 – $44.78 | -34.63% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $90.43 | $76.87 – $104.00 | +47.84% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $46.31 | $39.36 – $53.25 | -24.30% | 0.6% | PE = g (24.5) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $20.10 | $19.10 – $21.11 | -67.13% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $3.95 | $3.35 – $4.54 | -93.55% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -20.0% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.40)β | × 0.40 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 6.26% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 1.26% |
| Effective tax ratet | 24.7% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 0.95% |
| Equity weight$25.9B | 53.6% |
| Debt weight$22.4B | 46.4% |
| WACC | 3.80% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 3.83% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 61.63% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 7.63% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -11.20% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 0.00% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 24.50% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.82% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Defensive (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $67.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.