Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$2,414.80
+214.78% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$767.14
Mkt cap $28.44B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$688.10
-10.30% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
CASY · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
CASY · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $7,301.21 | $2,064.52 – $8,277.65 | +851.74% | 22.3% | WACC 5.1%, g₀=24.7%, gₗ=4.6% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $1,137.30 | $725.58 – $2,066.87 | +48.25% | 16.8% | kₑ 7.4%, g₀=24.7%, gₗ=4.6% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $68.86 | $50.35 – $108.89 | -91.02% | — | D₁ 1.79, kₑ 7.4%, gₗ 4.6% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $134.72 | $91.29 – $228.64 | -82.44% | — | D₀ 1.79, g₀=24.7%, gₗ=4.6%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $106.58 | $90.59 – $122.56 | -86.11% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 24.7% → 4.6%, kₑ 7.4% | high |
| Residual income | income | $104.32 | $91.80 – $116.84 | -86.40% | 11.2% | BV 86.87, ROE 15.6% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $5,679.25 | $4,997.74 – $6,360.76 | +640.31% | 7.8% | IC 6.1B, WACC 5.1% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $292.80 | $257.66 – $327.94 | -61.83% | 13.4% | EPS 14.64 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $710.41 | $603.85 – $816.97 | -7.40% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 394.67 × peer P/S 1.80 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $321.10 | $282.57 – $359.63 | -58.14% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 2.6B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $242.45 | $206.08 – $278.82 | -68.40% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $538.70 | $457.90 – $619.51 | -29.78% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.53× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $560.80 | $476.68 – $644.92 | -26.90% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 38.3% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $227.78 | $200.45 – $255.11 | -70.31% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $700.49 | $595.41 – $805.56 | -8.69% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $360.94 | $306.80 – $415.08 | -52.95% | 0.6% | PE = g (24.7) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $86.87 | $82.53 – $91.21 | -88.68% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $26.62 | $22.63 – $30.61 | -96.53% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -20.0% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.65)β | × 0.65 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 7.36% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 3.28% |
| Effective tax ratet | 23.7% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 2.50% |
| Equity weight$3.5B | 54.3% |
| Debt weight$3.0B | 45.7% |
| WACC | 5.14% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 17.14% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 38.31% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 16.32% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 14.97% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 13.52% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 24.65% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 4.64% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-04-29)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Cyclical (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $688.10
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.